温家宝：考虑采取新措施提振经济

中国总理温家宝周六表示，中国国内银行业处在稳健的经营状态，这就为政府推出提振实体经济的刺激计划提供了支持，中国新闻网(China News Service)报导。 报导援引温家宝的话称，这与部分西方国家的情形截然不同，这些国家的政府不得不动用大量资金来填补银行系统的窟窿。

温家宝向中国银行股份有限公司(Bank of China Ltd.)伦敦分行管理人士发表了上述讲话。伦敦是此次温家宝出访欧洲行程中的一站。 报导引述温家宝的话称，中国的银行资产质量比较好，流动性充裕，处在一种比较稳健、健康的经营状态，这就对中国政府应对金融危机起了巨大的支撑作用。

报导称，温家宝敦促国内银行加强监管，不能向产能过剩项目放贷，使今天的贷款不至于日后变成新的坏帐。 温家宝警告全球银行的问题正从投资银行向商业银行蔓延，金融危机的走势还不明朗。

报导援引温家宝的话称，在海外一线的金融工作者应密切关注国际金融动向，分析金 融危机的走势以及其可能给中国带来的影响。 中国新闻社网站周末时另一篇报导称，中国总理温家宝表示中国是否继续购买美国国 债将取决于中国的需要。 报导援引温家宝的话称，中国的外汇储备这些年增长很快。中国实行外汇储备的多元 化，购买美国债券是其中一个重要部分。

温家宝周六在伦敦会见四十八家集团俱乐部(The 48 Group Club)代表时表示，中国是否会继续购买美国国债以及购买的规模将取决于外汇安全和保值的要求。四十八家集 团俱乐部是致力于积极促进中英关系的独立商业组织。 与此同时，温家宝还重申了周四在欧盟(European Commission)布鲁塞尔总部新闻发布 会上的观点，称中国的汇率政策是正确的，也是符合中国国情的。

温家宝周六表示，维持人民币汇率稳定不仅有利于中国，也有利于世界经济。 温家宝还重申，中国政府并不追求贸易顺差，也不倡导贸易保护主义。 此外，英国《金融时报》(Financial Times)网站周日报导，中国国务院总理温家宝称，中国正考虑在去年年底宣布的5,850亿美元刺激方案的基础上采取新措施来提振经济。

温家宝在专访中表示，中国将使人民币稳定在一个均衡、合理的水平上。他指出，若人民币汇率出现巨大波动，将是一个大灾难。 温家宝向该报称，中国希望维持其所持美元资产的价值，但同时也需要把外汇储备用 于国内的发展。 温家宝称，国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)和世界银行(World Bank)需要进行改革。这两个组织均希望中国能够出资应对当前这场经济危机。 温家宝表示，中国一直都希望能够扩大在这两个机构的影响力以及投票权。

Sponsored Links

Hang Lung Properties - profit decline on slow property sales

Hang Lung Properties (HLP) is scheduled to announce its FY09 interim results on 10 February. We expect its underlying net profit to drop by 74% YoY to HK$991m, given the drop in property sales.

In contrast to the strong sales of about HK$6bn at the Long Beach and Harbourside last year, HLP has sold only a handful of its inventory at Aquamarine during 1H09, leading to a significant drop in gross profit from property sales. We forecast a gross profit of only HK$4m from property sales for 1H FY09, compared with the gross profit of over HK$3.3bn for the same period last year.

We forecast rental at Plaza 66 and The Grand Gateway to have continued to record strong double-digit growth for 1H09, increasing by 28% YoY to HK$862m, of which about 9% will have come from appreciation of the Renminbi. While such momentum is likely to slow down in 2H09, given that the malls are getting more mature and we think Renminbi appreciation will slow, we expect rental income from mainland China to pick up again when new projects start contributing towards FY10 earnings.

However, given the company’s low gearing and large cash surplus, we believe HLP can go on increasing its dividend in absolute terms.Valuation

With its shares trading at a PBR of 1.15x on our FY09 BVPS forecast, we believe HLP’s current valuation represents a significant premium to that of its peers, most of whom are trading in a PBR range of 0.3-0.6x, which suggests that the market has already factored in a premium on HLP for its strong financial position and the potential for China growth. We maintain our 3 (Hold) rating with a six-month target price of HK$18.4, based on a 15% discount to our FY09 NAV forecast of HK$21.6.Catalysts and action

While both the execution of HLP’s new projects in mainland China and the timing of inventory disposal hold the key to crystallising the value of the company’s assets, we do not think either will reach fruition in the near term.

Midland - Prospects of a cyclical recovery remain intact; accumulate on weakness

Midland issued a profit warning on 23 January, cautioning that it would record a loss for FY08. We believe the main reason is an estimated HK$150m in additional provisions for bad debt related to commission income associated mainly with primary- market projects sold in 2H07-1H08.

However, Midland is in the midst of a notable downsizing exercise, with its branch and staff numbers falling by 20.4% and 30.2% from the peak in 1H08, to 460 and 5,767, respectively, at the end of December 2008. In our view, this, together with the recent pick-up in transaction volume, should underpin its prospects for a cyclical recovery from FY09.

We think Midland’s current valuation (trading at a PBR of 1.03x) is attractive, given that the stock has rarely traded below book value over the past five years (the average was 3.08x).

Stripping out its net cash of HK$1bn (HK$1.44/share), Midland is trading currently at a PER of 1x peak earnings and 3.5x average earnings since 1995. We maintain our 2 (Outperform) rating and have lowered our six-month target price to HK$3.30 (from HK$3.66), based on a target PER of 10x on our FY09 EPS forecast (equivalent to HK$2.58/share), plus a 50% discount to our estimate of its net cash per share (equivalent to HK$0.72/share) by the end of FY09.