China Taisan Technology Group - Losing stamina

More cautious in view of the difficult environment We have downgraded our rating for China Taisan to 3 (Hold) from 1 (Buy), and lowered our six-month target price to S$0.13 from S$0.24, as we believe its latest results reflect the increasingly difficult environment faced by companies operating in the PRC sports-apparel market. Our target price is based on a peer-average PER of about 2.5x on our 12-month earnings forecast to 2Q FY09.

China Taisan recorded a 4Q FY08 net profit of Rmb70.2m, down7.7% YoY, on the back of a 9.6% YoY increase in sales. The netprofit was 31.5% below our forecast, and showed that even with a strong customer base comprised of leading sports brands, including Nike, Adidas, Anta, and Xtep, the company was still vulnerable to the industry downturn. We have revised down our FY09-10 earnings forecasts by 36-42% to factor in potential consolidation of the sports-apparel market.

China Taisan declared a dividend of Rmb0.0815 per share, which amounts to a yield of around 14% at the current share price. The company has committed to pay out at least 30% of its net profit for FY09 as dividends, and we would expect the attractive yield and net cash of S$0.063 per share to help support the share price in the absence of meaningful growth.

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